Champions Trophy 2025: Rain stalls Afghanistan’s charge as Australia lock in semi-final spot in Lahore

Rain shuts the door on Afghanistan as Australia advance

On a night that called for nerve and clarity, the weather did the talking. Afghanistan’s must-win Group B game against Australia at Lahore’s Gaddafi Stadium never made it past 12.5 overs of the chase, swallowed by steady rain that refused to let up. Both sides split the points, which suited Australia nicely. It pushed them through to the semi-finals. For Afghanistan, it turned a clear path into a tightrope walk over a canyon.

Here’s the punchline: Afghanistan had done a lot right. They stuck to their strengths, batted with patience, and posted 273 — a score that was competitive on a surface offering true bounce and decent pace. Rahmat Shah played the anchor with a composed 88, while Azmatullah Omarzai’s 67 gave the innings its backbone in the final third. Against a full-strength Australian attack, that was a statement of calm and control.

Australia’s reply came out hot. Travis Head went hard in the first powerplay, rushed to a fifty, and had the scoreboard galloping at 109 for 1. With the chase set up and the outfield skidding, the equation already looked friendly for the five-time world champions. Then came the first specks of rain. Umpires looked, teams waited, covers rolled out, and the clock kept bleeding. The showers never let the game breathe again.

Under tournament rules, you need at least 20 overs in the second innings for a Duckworth-Lewis-Stern (DLS) calculation and a result. This chase didn’t get there. So no result, one point each, and the table shifted just enough to slam the door on Afghanistan’s control of their fate. Australia ticked the big box. Afghanistan were pushed into math they didn’t want to do.

Steve Smith, captaining Australia here, had the calm reaction you’d expect from a side that had planned for the long haul. The target had looked manageable, the top two finish was the pre-tournament goal, and now the semi-final ticket is printed. There was a note of concern, though: Matt Short tweaked his quad. He’ll be assessed before the knockouts, because Australia won’t want to juggle combinations with a medal week coming.

Across the room, Hashmatullah Shahidi kept his chin up. Afghanistan needed this win, and they knew it. Instead, they got a cruel pause button. Shahidi chose hope over resignation, saying the team still had a chance if England could produce a monster result against South Africa. It sounded far-fetched, but this campaign has run on grit and belief, and he wasn’t about to change the tone now.

Was 273 enough? On most Lahore nights, it’s around par. The pitch offered even carry, the boundaries weren’t massive, and dew was always likely to creep in. Afghanistan’s plan was to play the long game: bat through, keep wickets for a late kick, then lean on their bowlers. With 273 in the bank, they were banking on cutting off the chase with pressure, variations, and middle-overs squeeze. That script never got to the crucial chapters.

The batting template was sensible. Rahmat Shah’s 88 was textbook ODI craft: balance, busy hands, constant rotation. Omarzai complemented him by shifting gears late. The top order didn’t waste the new ball, the middle refused to panic when Australia hit hard lengths, and the tail squeezed enough at the death to push past 270. It was calculated rather than flashy — the kind of innings that gives your bowlers something to work with.

Australia had their moments with the ball. The new-ball pair challenged the stumps and hit the top of off with intent. The middle overs saw cross-seam and cutters, the usual playbook on a surface that kept its trueness but didn’t exactly fly off the deck. But Afghanistan didn’t fold. The innings had calm decision-making — a sign of a team that now treats these stages as home, not a field trip.

The chase, brief as it was, felt ominous for Afghanistan. Head’s driving was crisp, the pulls authoritative, and he kept finding the gaps on a fast outfield. Australia’s run rate hovered well above what was required, and they had wickets in hand. That was the alarm bell. Afghanistan’s best hope was always going to sit in the 15-35 over stretch — Rashid Khan and the spinners tightening the screws, changing pace, and teasing mistakes. Rain meant we never found out if that squeeze would have worked.

And that’s the sting. This Afghan attack is built for the middle. Naveen-ul-Haq’s change-ups, Rashid’s variations, Noor’s angles, even the surprise overs from the allrounders — that whole toolbox was supposed to come into play when Australia had to put the brakes on. Instead, by 12.5 overs, the covers were on. All that planning sat unused on a soggy square.

So where does that leave Group B? Australia are through. India are already in the last four. New Zealand, from the other group, are also in. Afghanistan sit at three points, but their net run rate is a problem: -0.99. Net run rate is the tiebreaker that rewards big wins and punishes big losses. Think of it as the average pace at which you’ve outscored opponents across the tournament. The deeper the negative, the heavier the baggage you carry into tight tables.

Because of that number, Afghanistan need something close to a sporting miracle to climb over South Africa. The arithmetic is brutal, and the margins are huge. England have to beat South Africa by a distance that almost never happens at this level. We’re talking a rout, not a routine win.

• If England set around 301, South Africa would need to lose by roughly 207 runs for Afghanistan to sneak ahead on net run rate.
• Equivalent scenarios apply if South Africa chase — the required margin stays in the same universe: enormous.
• Any rain in that game that trims overs or reduces the target makes Afghanistan’s route even narrower.

The logic behind those margins is simple. Afghanistan’s negative NRR means they don’t just need South Africa to lose — they need them to lose in a way that yanks the average hard in Afghanistan’s favor. One off night for South Africa isn’t enough. It has to be a collapse of rare scale.

There’s also the weather factor we can’t ignore. This tournament has already dealt with multiple rain interruptions. Lahore got another soaking tonight. Short bursts can be managed; long, relentless drizzle ruins schedules and tempo. The umpires did what they could — inspections, squeegees, patience. But once the ground staff are fighting the outfield as much as the square, you’re waiting for the inevitable call.

From a player welfare and logistics angle, the timing of the rain was the worst kind. Players had warmed up, adrenaline was up, and bowlers were ready to hit their spells. Then everything stalled. You can’t bowl fast with a wet front foot. You can’t field with a greasy ball. And you certainly can’t finish a chase without the minimum 20 overs. Protocols exist for a reason, and they were followed to the letter.

This hurts for Afghanistan because of what they’ve become: a proper tournament side. They came in with clarity, backed their batting to stand up, and trusted their attack to choke teams in the middle. That template nearly toppled a giant last year and has kept evolving since. On nights like these, you want the contest to run its course. They earned that chance. The weather said no.

Zoom out, and there’s a bigger story. Over the last few ICC events, Afghanistan have moved from dangerous underdogs to measured contenders. The gap isn’t what it used to be. They still chase experience in tight finishes and depth in high-pressure slots, but the fear factor they generate with ball in hand is real. A semi-final here would have marked a landmark. Instead, the record will show a no-result that blunted their surge right when it looked organized and convincing.

Rahmat Shah’s innings deserves more than a footnote. He kept shape against the hard-ball threat, left smartly, and punished length. Omarzai’s 67 came with intent — the kind that stops the game from drifting into 240s. Their partnership absorbed Australia’s middle-overs plan and pushed late. That’s how you build 270-plus in white-ball cricket: one batter bats long, the other sets the tempo late, and the rest chip in with clean strikes and hard running.

Australia, to their credit, looked in control of the chase while it lasted. Head’s tempo locked the bowlers into defensive options. The one wicket they did lose didn’t dent the rate. You could read their intent in the singles they pinched, the way they turned good balls into ones and bad balls into fours. It was clinical for 12.5 overs. That’s all we got to see.

Selection-wise, Australia will monitor Matt Short’s quad closely. He’s valuable in these conditions because he balances the XI — flexible batting role, handy overs if the pitch grips, strong fielding in the ring. If he’s limited, Australia may need to shuffle roles and overs in the semi, which can throw off rhythm. They’ve handled bigger pivots before, but knockout cricket doesn’t leave much time to settle.

What about Afghanistan’s bowling shape if the game had continued? Expectation was simple: pace to take it to 12-14 overs, then spin to drag the chase into the long grass. Rashid Khan thrives when the asking rate is steady but not trivial — the nervous zone where batters feel they must score and yet fear the big mistake. Tonight, that stage never arrived. The ball stayed new, the field stayed up, and the downpour did the damage.

As for the fans, the turnout told its own story. Afghan flags in pockets around the ground, Australian shirts sprinkled through the stands, and lots of families who came for a contest and got a weather watch. They waited, they sang, they stayed positive. When the cancellation finally came, you could sense a collective exhale — frustration more than anger. This sport lives on margins. Rain makes a mockery of them.

There’s a scheduling footnote here too. This venue is used to evening games, and February weather in this region can swing. Western disturbances sweep through and dump rain in bursts. Grounds teams in Pakistan are experienced with quick cover work, but drainage only buys you time, not miracles. Once the outfield holds water, no one wants to see dives turning into slides and hamstring risks.

For the semi-final picture, Australia won’t care whether they finish first or second in the group. They’re in. Their focus is scouting a likely opponent, managing workloads, and keeping their frontline bowlers fresh. They’ll look at matchups — how spin plays against a particular middle order, which quick gets the new ball, where the boundaries tempt the pull. They’ve lived this week after week across formats.

Afghanistan’s camp, on the other hand, will do something unusual: cheer for England, loudly. They need a result so lopsided it’ll trend on every scoreboard app. That’s a tough psychological place to live in, but it’s sport. You hold your breath and check the NRR columns. You hope for the strange. And you remind yourself that, rain or not, you put 273 on a major stage and looked the part.

One more thing worth clearing up: the DLS talk. Some fans asked why there wasn’t a revised target. Simple — you need 20 overs of the chase to reach the threshold for a DLS result in this format. At 12.5 overs, you’re well short. Even if Australia were miles ahead of the par score at that moment, it doesn’t matter. The law is the law, and it protects teams from tiny sample sizes dictating outcomes in big tournaments.

So we move on. Australia bank the point and the momentum. Afghanistan hold onto a sliver of hope, sharpened by that stubborn number next to their name: -0.99. Net run rate is the great equalizer and the great heartbreaker. It rewards dominance and punishes inconsistency. Tonight, it punished a team that might well have defended 273 if the middle overs had even happened.

If there’s a silver line for Afghanistan, it’s this: they showed again that their batting can set up big matches, not just stay in them. That’s been the missing layer. The bowling is world-class. The fielding has sharpened. What they did against Australia — control the tempo, build partnerships, and cross 270 without panic — is repeatable. You can build a tournament identity on that.

The tournament marches on with three semi-finalists named and one spot all but claimed. Weather has played its part across several group games, and it played the lead tonight. Sometimes the best-laid plans drown under cloud. As the lights dimmed over a wet Gaddafi Stadium, Australia walked out with what they came for. Afghanistan walked out with what they feared most: hope without control.

What the numbers and the road ahead really mean

Here’s the clean, no-frills read on the table:

• Australia — through to the semi-finals after the no-result.
• India — already qualified from the group.
• New Zealand — confirmed from the other group.
• Afghanistan — stuck at three points with a net run rate of -0.99, alive only if England shred South Africa by an extreme margin.

Net run rate isn’t mystical. It’s the average difference between how quickly you score and how quickly your opponents score across the tournament. Big wins inflate it. Heavy defeats smash it. Afghanistan’s early stumbles mean they’re carrying a weight that a single normal result elsewhere won’t lift. Hence the 200-plus run fantasy they’re forced to root for now.

Players will tell you they hate this limbo. Athletes want control — give me the ball, give me the bat, let me decide it on the field. Afghanistan had that chance and earned it with 273. The sky took it away. That’s sport in the open air. That’s also why fans keep coming back. Because every so often, the ridiculous does happen, the math flips, and a team that had no business escaping finds a door.

Until then, the notebook on this game will read like a tease. A top-order set-up from Head, a measured Afghan batting display, and a result filed under No Result. The semi-final bracket will be stronger for having Australia in it. And Afghanistan, whatever the table ends up saying, will take away something more durable than numbers — the growing certainty that they’ve got the tools to stay in the room when the biggest teams enter.

For now, the scoreboard is simple: Australia move on. Afghanistan wait, watch, and hope that England pull off the wildest of heists against South Africa. If they do, the story of this Champions Trophy will add a twist no one saw coming. If they don’t, the rain in Lahore will be remembered as the night a brave run met a grey sky and ran out of time.